• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1047

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 21 16:36:16 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 211636
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211635=20
    WVZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-211800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1047
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1135 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Kentucky and northern Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 211635Z - 211800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms along a cold front are expected to become more
    organized through the afternoon with a threat for some large hail
    and damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along the cold front from
    northern Kentucky into northeast Arkansas with some additional
    development occurring in the unstable airmass ahead of this
    activity. Mid-level flow is weaker in this region (~30-35 kts per
    area VWP) which yields around 20 to 25 knots of effective shear
    given the southwesterly surface winds. Therefore, storms have
    struggled to become organized thus far. However, the airmass ahead
    of this front is very unstable with MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg and
    increasing with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This
    instability and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km per
    BNA 12Z RAOB) will support rapid updraft growth which may pose a
    threat for isolated damaging wind and large hail. As storms congeal,
    they may become better organized which could support a greater wind
    damage threat. If this occurs, a watch may need to be considered
    across at least parts of northern Tennessee and eastern Kentucky.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rOwU27kqyF1hSBppHJgxNAcik43slxqLanPVnkr6ETCWMmZRNXi_exrSvwVfX8_qqxkyE7sm$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 37678659 38148517 38148248 37938223 37618218 36598373
    36068508 35458672 35488801 35608963 35829050 36029074
    37018860 37678659=20



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