• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1046

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 21 16:32:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 211632
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211631=20
    NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-211800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1046
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

    Areas affected...Vermont and northern New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 211631Z - 211800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop in the next one to two
    hours. A watch is likely.

    DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass is in place across the Northeast
    with widespread dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. In addition,
    mostly sunny skies have allowed temperatures to quickly warm into
    the low to mid 80s. Despite this heating, dewpoints have not fallen
    appreciably as the moist airmass is quite deep across this region.
    This has already allowed for an erosion of MLCIN and MLCAPE around
    1500 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Additional warming and some cooling temperatures aloft should lead to additional destabilization with
    MLCAPE likely 2000 to 2500 J/kg.

    A cumulus field has already expanded across eastern New York and
    thunderstorms are expected to emerge from this cumulus field in the
    next 1 to 2 hours given the CINH is already limited and the boundary
    layer continues to warm.=20

    The KCYX WSR-88D VWP already shows 60 knots of flow around 2km with
    40 knots at 1km. Additionally, the KBUF WSR-88D is sensing a 50 knot
    low-level jet at 1km. This matches 12Z guidance well which also show
    this low-level jet overspreading much of Vermont and northern New
    York this afternoon. This strong low-level wind profile will support
    a damaging wind threat from any storms, and especially where any
    bowing segments develop. In addition, the shear profile will support
    some supercells which will be capable of large hail, damaging winds
    and perhaps a tornado or two. Low-level flow will be mostly
    unidirectional, but low-level speed shear will be strong, and more
    backed surface flow is forecast in far northern New York and
    northern Vermont which could support a locally higher tornado
    threat, especially given the expectation for at least a few
    supercells. However, the greater tornado threat will likely remain
    north of the border in southern Quebec near the warm front.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rdxBX23-rt1hcNzVxXhe1-kfrOlTFypf8HhvX9FWFKU4wofDFISB2LgJkQ3Vg_LtrQzK8CJq$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 43417609 43777614 44387599 44847542 45127459 45167173
    45077147 43807216 42887261 42547439 42827573 43417609=20



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