• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1045

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 21 16:00:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 211600
    SPC MCD 211559=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1045
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1059 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Ohio...Western Pennsylvania...southwest New
    York...and portions of West Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 211559Z - 211730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe storm threat is expected to increase over the
    next 1 to 2 hours. A watch is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Showers have developed along the cold front in
    east-central Ohio. Expect these showers to develop into
    thunderstorms and strengthen as the boundary layer warms and
    destabilizes ahead of this activity. Dewpoints are in the upper 60s
    to low 70s across much of the Upper Ohio Valley and into the
    Northeast. 12Z RAOBs show deep moisture near the surface which
    suggests dewpoints likely won't decrease much, even as the boundary
    layer mixing deepens. Therefore, an unstable airmass is forecast
    with MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. The 1530Z VWP from KCLE observed
    the vertical wind profile well which, as expected, is similar to the
    PIT 12Z RAOB. Winds as high as 35 to 40 knots extend as low as 1 km
    with mid-level flow around 50 knots. This shear profile will be
    supportive of organized convection including supercells and bowing
    line segments. In addition, the strong flow within 1km of the
    surface should aid downward transport of strong winds. Therefore,
    damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazard. Large hail may
    also occur, especially with any supercells which may develop. In
    addition, strong speed shear in the low-levels could support the
    threat of a tornado or two, but veered surface flow will likely
    preclude a greater tornado threat.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qut2cyjESZwZuAU34PHa5CtqEaOSl0cp-vGrv9_-CB_r3iIvmEWaJXYwdbDeKCsObU86Vfeq$=
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    LAT...LON 39938303 40318319 40728285 41398214 41948091 42327996
    42387957 42677901 42717854 42137827 41957848 41397858
    40647913 39737980 39638050 39268135 39228253 39648283

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