• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1044

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 21 06:15:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 210615
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210614=20
    OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-210815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1044
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0114 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Indiana...Southern Lower Michigan...Far
    Northwest Ohio

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 298...

    Valid 210614Z - 210815Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 298
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A tornado and wind-damage threat is expected to continue
    across parts of northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan over
    the next few hours. The threat should eventually effect northwest
    Ohio.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a well-developed QLCS
    over northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan. The QLCS is
    located in a very moist airmass with surface dewpoints near 70 F.
    This is contributing to moderate instability ahead of the QLCS, with
    the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/Kg range across
    northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP in
    South Bend, Indiana has 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 kt with 50 kt of
    flow just above the surface. This environment will continue to
    support QLCS development. For this reason, the bowing line segments
    ongoing in the western part of WW 298 are expected to be maintained
    for several more hours. Wind damage will be likely along the leading
    edge of the more intense line segments. A tornado or two will also
    be possible, associated with any rotating storms embedded in the
    line.

    ..Broyles.. 06/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o5H0XzJM7ijbC1bezTnz__weFTi6aH0Y0rpCd3oBeYuE8sk5xDuqQG1esqBTddS7XJTca15M$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 40898689 40898619 41058613 41008526 40908522 40938432
    41158429 41178336 41238335 41248282 41378282 41458309
    41518260 41658259 41908295 42098304 42328291 42518253
    42678265 42838268 42848364 42798369 42748629 42488635
    42418695 40898689=20



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