• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1043

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 21 03:51:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 210351
    SPC MCD 210351=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1043
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1051 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    Areas affected...Northern IN...northwest OH...southern Lower

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295...

    Valid 210351Z - 210445Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295

    SUMMARY...A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed
    before the 05z expiration of WW 295 for upstream thunderstorms
    posing a severe risk into the overnight hours.

    DISCUSSION...Evening surface analysis shows a composite warm
    front/outflow boundary near the IN/OH/MI border, with a recent
    increase in strong/isolated severe thunderstorms in the vicinity of
    the front. A strengthening low-level jet will focus warm/moist
    advection in the vicinity of the front during the early overnight
    hours, providing a feed of unstable air into the region as
    strong/severe thunderstorms currently over northeast IL continue to
    move east. Current indications, supported by recent high-res
    guidance, are for a continued severe threat beyond the scheduled 05z
    expiration of ww 295. This will necessitate coordination of a new
    watch prior to that time.

    ..Bunting.. 06/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q9wdWU05_lwb-7DxTi5Be_RRiQKHDfoAGZ7vaaBq75Qw8Vf01tCVEfYv21qQZVhoOxQKzDfZ$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42938610 42858466 42798367 42388314 41858296 41338284
    40988300 40768436 40558540 40628614 41008686 41788671

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