Mesoscale Discussion 1043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021
Areas affected...Northern IN...northwest OH...southern Lower
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295...
Valid 210351Z - 210445Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295
SUMMARY...A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed
before the 05z expiration of WW 295 for upstream thunderstorms
posing a severe risk into the overnight hours.
DISCUSSION...Evening surface analysis shows a composite warm
front/outflow boundary near the IN/OH/MI border, with a recent
increase in strong/isolated severe thunderstorms in the vicinity of
the front. A strengthening low-level jet will focus warm/moist
advection in the vicinity of the front during the early overnight
hours, providing a feed of unstable air into the region as
strong/severe thunderstorms currently over northeast IL continue to
move east. Current indications, supported by recent high-res
guidance, are for a continued severe threat beyond the scheduled 05z
expiration of ww 295. This will necessitate coordination of a new
watch prior to that time.
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at firstname.lastname@example.org and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1624247508-2022-2660--