• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1043

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 21 03:51:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 210351
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210351=20
    OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-210445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1043
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1051 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    Areas affected...Northern IN...northwest OH...southern Lower
    Michigan

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295...

    Valid 210351Z - 210445Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed
    before the 05z expiration of WW 295 for upstream thunderstorms
    posing a severe risk into the overnight hours.

    DISCUSSION...Evening surface analysis shows a composite warm
    front/outflow boundary near the IN/OH/MI border, with a recent
    increase in strong/isolated severe thunderstorms in the vicinity of
    the front. A strengthening low-level jet will focus warm/moist
    advection in the vicinity of the front during the early overnight
    hours, providing a feed of unstable air into the region as
    strong/severe thunderstorms currently over northeast IL continue to
    move east. Current indications, supported by recent high-res
    guidance, are for a continued severe threat beyond the scheduled 05z
    expiration of ww 295. This will necessitate coordination of a new
    watch prior to that time.

    ..Bunting.. 06/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q9wdWU05_lwb-7DxTi5Be_RRiQKHDfoAGZ7vaaBq75Qw8Vf01tCVEfYv21qQZVhoOxQKzDfZ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 42938610 42858466 42798367 42388314 41858296 41338284
    40988300 40768436 40558540 40628614 41008686 41788671
    42938610=20



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