Mesoscale Discussion 1042
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021
Areas affected...North-central Missouri and far eastern Kansas.
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 294...
Valid 210256Z - 210400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 294
SUMMARY...A few severe storms with a threat for strong wind gusts
will remain possible across the far southern fringe of WW294 through
the 0400z expiration time.
DISCUSSION...As of 0240z, RADAR data showed a loosely organized band
of storms stretching from near Kansas City into north-central
Missouri. Storm coverage has increased likely as a result of
strengthening low-level warm advection with the nocturnal low-level
jet. Flow associated with the jet will remain largely parallel to
the ongoing band of storms suggesting slower forward propagating
speeds and additional development focused along the southern flank.
Mostly non-severe gusts have been observed over the last 40 minutes,
but storms will likely remain capable of isolated damaging gusts as
they exit the southern portions of WW294 over the next hour.
Additional cellular development to the west across far eastern
Kansas may grow upscale and continue to the east posing a risk for
isolated gusts and or small hail after 04z. While convective
coverage is forecast to increase, the threat for severe weather
should gradually abate through 0400z as the boundary layer separates
and inhibition increases.
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