Mesoscale Discussion 1041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021
Areas affected...West-central/northern IL...northeast MO
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 296...
Valid 210254Z - 210400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 296
SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds, large hail and a tornado
or two will continue across the watch area.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite as of 0245z depicts several
areas of strong/severe thunderstorms across or about to enter WW
296. Coverage continues to increase as warm advection with an
intensifying low-level jet focuses ascent across the watch area.=20
Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows a supportive environment for a
continued severe risk with strong instability (2000-2500 J/kg) and
35-40 kts of westerly effective shear. Although individual cells
will be capable of severe hail, cells merging into clusters/line
segments will be capable of producing more concentrated areas of
damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado.
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