Mesoscale Discussion 1040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021
Areas affected...Central/northern IN...southern Lower MI...portions
of northern OH
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295...
Valid 210014Z - 210115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a
risk for large hail and damaging winds.
DISCUSSION...A cluster/bowing segment of severe storms was located
over far southwest Lower MI and extreme northern IN at 0010z, with
more isolated storms over eastern and southern portions of the watch
area. Ascent with a northeast-moving MCV near the southern tip of
Lake Michigan will aid additional development through the early
evening hours, with a continued risk for large hail and damaging
winds given moderate/strong MLCAPE and 40 kt west/southwest
mid-level flow. Although the cluster of storms near
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek will move towards lower instability over the
next couple of hours, the degree of organization suggests the
damaging wind threat will persist at least in the short term.
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