• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1039

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 20 23:56:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 202356
    SPC MCD 202356=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1039
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0656 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Iowa...northern Missouri...northeast
    Kansas...and far western Illinois

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 294...

    Valid 202356Z - 210200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 294

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a
    large hail, damaging wind, and some tornado risk into the evening
    hours. Southern Iowa and northern Missouri will continue to see the
    highest risk in the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Discrete to semi-discrete storms continue to develop
    and mature along a surface trough and ahead of a cold front from
    southern IA to far northeast KS. A few supercells have been noted
    with 1-2 inch hail, wind damage, and a tornado reported within the
    past 2 hours from this activity. The warm sector ahead of these
    storms remains supportive of organized convection with RAP
    mesoanalysis estimating upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE and roughly 40
    knots of boundary-normal effective bulk shear. While instability
    estimates may be slightly high based on the recent 00Z TOP sounding,
    the shear estimates appear valid and instability remains sufficient
    for severe convection. This includes areas of northern MO and
    southeast IA where previously cool/stable outflow has warmed into
    the low to mid 80s, minimizing surface-based and mixed-layer

    Discrete to semi-discrete storms remain likely in the near term,
    which will maintain the hail/wind and at least a low-end tornado
    threat. Storm mode may become more linear with an increasing wind
    threat through the late evening as the cold front (noted in KDMX
    reflectivity) catches up with the surface trough and increases
    forcing for ascent. A downstream watch into eastern MO and perhaps
    western IL may be needed if an organized wind threat becomes

    ..Moore.. 06/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oTKuqeAASWln0VSM51Fsf3WdMXXXbhdqN6VyxFz2WwAMFumiQZb2nSo1huuGL5oRzjQqlUpT$=
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    LAT...LON 39509540 40049484 40829403 41589331 42019285 42069241
    41699177 41279111 40619068 39909084 39259134 39039208
    39079311 39009436 39139501 39509540=20

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