• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1038

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 20 23:27:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 202327
    SPC MCD 202326=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1038
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0626 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    Areas affected...southeastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 202326Z - 210030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated convection is forecast to increase across the
    Front Range this afternoon/evening. A few strong/severe storms may
    evolve with a risk for damaging winds or hail through this evening.
    Coverage should remain sparse limiting the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar data from KPUX and KFTG showed several
    clusters of weak updrafts have become gradually deeper over the last
    half hour. New storm development over El Paso County Colorado could
    be an early signal for similar storm initiation along the Front
    Range late this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis indicates 1000-1500 J/kg
    of MLCAPE has developed in response to weak upslope flow and
    dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F. Deep-layer shear is
    adequate for updraft organization in the form of multi-cell clusters
    and perhaps a weak supercell. Model soundings do suggest the ongoing
    convection may be rooted above the surface, which casts doubt on
    severe potential early. However, if storms are able to survive,
    damaging winds and hail may develop given the degree of buoyancy and organization potential. The severe weather threat remains
    conditional and somewhat uncertain, but some potential does exist. A
    watch is unlikely for now given the uncertainty and expected limited
    storm coverage.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uEf_M8emPXFK0cKIVT0UDuTNpNTow7A_O5MD9VCF-GiuVGYt7RrvLe7b5u8R2Hpb5jme6dGW$=
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    LAT...LON 37220429 37440437 38200472 38730472 39110446 39120377
    38670277 38160244 37590220 37160226 37080240 37060348
    37060395 37220429=20

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