• STRMDISC: TD Claudette 13

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun Jun 20 19:19:00 2021
    295
    WTNT43 KNHC 202032
    TCDAT3

    Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 13
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
    500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    Satellite and surface observations show that Claudette's circulation
    has become elongated today and that there is a fairly large area of
    light winds near the center. Observations along the southeastern
    U.S. coast and over coastal sections of the Carolinas indicate that
    the winds have increased somewhat but these data still support an
    initial intensity of 25 kt. As Claudette approaches the coast
    overnight and Monday morning, restrengthening is anticipated, and
    the cyclone is forecast to regain tropical storm status before it
    exits the coast of North Carolina. Some additional strengthening
    is forecast while Claudette moves over the warm waters of the Gulf
    Stream and the shear remains low. The system should become
    extratropical Tuesday afternoon when it passes near Nova Scotia,
    and the global models indicate that it will degenerate into a
    trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning. The NHC intensity
    foreast is close to the intensity model consensus and follows the
    trends of the various global models.

    The depression is moving east-northeastward at around 15 kt. A
    mid-latitude trough that is moving into the central United States
    should continue to steer Claudette east-northeastward to
    northeastward over the next couple of days. The center of Claudette
    is forecast to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina Monday
    morning, then pass well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday
    night, and be near or just southeast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.
    The dynamical model guidance remains in very good agreement and the
    NHC forecast again lies near the various consensus aids.


    Key Messages:

    1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
    flooding from North Florida and southeastern Georgia into the
    Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream
    flooding impacts are possible across these areas.

    2. Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening across parts of the
    central and eastern Carolinas.

    3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
    North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
    Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
    northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
    Storm Watch is in effect.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 20/2100Z 34.2N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
    12H 21/0600Z 35.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
    24H 21/1800Z 36.9N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
    36H 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
    48H 22/1800Z 42.4N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    60H 23/0600Z 45.5N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)