• Pacific-NW: I94W Formatio

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun Jun 20 19:18:00 2021
    WTPN22 PGTW 201300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 149.3E TO 13.1N 143.6E
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 10.4N 149.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
    KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 6.0N 153.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 305
    NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION.
    A PARTIAL 200252Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A SHARP EASTERLY
    WAVE OR A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CYCLING
    CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES
    AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
    SEMICIRCLE AND STRONGER (15-20 KT) WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
    QUADRANT IN THE GRADIENT FLOW. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE
    ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
    LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
    SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
    INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT SLOWLY
    CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
    WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
    ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    211300Z.
    //
    NNNN
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