• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1037

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 20 22:23:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 202223
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202222=20
    WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-210015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1037
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0522 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    Areas affected...Far southeast Minnesota...northeast Iowa...and far
    western Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293...

    Valid 202222Z - 210015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and severe hail will
    continue for the next 1-2 hours for WW 293. The greatest near-term
    risk will likely reside across northeast Iowa.

    DISCUSSION...A convective line continues to push eastward across
    southeast MN and northern/northeast IA. So far, wind reports have
    generally been sub-severe, but radar imagery from KMPX and KARX
    suggest pockets of damaging wind remain possible as cold pool
    organization continues. 0-3 km bulk shear in this region remains
    nearly orthogonal to the line with magnitudes between 20-30 knots,
    further supporting the idea of at least an isolated damaging wind
    threat.=20

    Although the line's eastward motion has phased well with the
    eastward progression of the surface low and viable warm sector,
    remnant stable outflow to the east across southern WI/northern IL
    may hinder storm intensity to some degree - especially north of an
    effective warm frontal boundary noted in recent surface obs. South
    of this boundary, the higher theta-e air mass should provide enough
    better instability to maintain storm intensity and the wind/hail
    threat into the evening hours.

    ..Moore.. 06/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vt0O_yiTKOd-Pkr_z50UzUlSprncHtMpDRbaXJYL-2kXWvGLKjgMdUwg29NPdYwuyueSbooi$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 43499249 44089199 43969092 43539028 42689033 42219062
    42139105 42199173 42289223 42409303 42549345 42829337
    43499249=20



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