• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1037

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 20 22:23:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 202223
    SPC MCD 202222=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1037
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0522 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    Areas affected...Far southeast Minnesota...northeast Iowa...and far
    western Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293...

    Valid 202222Z - 210015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and severe hail will
    continue for the next 1-2 hours for WW 293. The greatest near-term
    risk will likely reside across northeast Iowa.

    DISCUSSION...A convective line continues to push eastward across
    southeast MN and northern/northeast IA. So far, wind reports have
    generally been sub-severe, but radar imagery from KMPX and KARX
    suggest pockets of damaging wind remain possible as cold pool
    organization continues. 0-3 km bulk shear in this region remains
    nearly orthogonal to the line with magnitudes between 20-30 knots,
    further supporting the idea of at least an isolated damaging wind

    Although the line's eastward motion has phased well with the
    eastward progression of the surface low and viable warm sector,
    remnant stable outflow to the east across southern WI/northern IL
    may hinder storm intensity to some degree - especially north of an
    effective warm frontal boundary noted in recent surface obs. South
    of this boundary, the higher theta-e air mass should provide enough
    better instability to maintain storm intensity and the wind/hail
    threat into the evening hours.

    ..Moore.. 06/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vt0O_yiTKOd-Pkr_z50UzUlSprncHtMpDRbaXJYL-2kXWvGLKjgMdUwg29NPdYwuyueSbooi$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 43499249 44089199 43969092 43539028 42689033 42219062
    42139105 42199173 42289223 42409303 42549345 42829337

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