• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1036

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 20 20:25:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 202025
    SPC MCD 202025=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1036
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0325 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Illinois and northern Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 202025Z - 202230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...There is an increasing severe weather threat late this
    afternoon and into the evening from east-central Illinois into
    northern Indiana.

    DISCUSSION...An MCV has traversed northern Missouri and western
    Illinois through the morning and early afternoon today. The
    convection has been mostly weak, likely due to the stable, capped
    downstream airmass from the overnight MCS in the region. In fact,
    almost all lightning has now ended within this cluster. However, a
    remnant MCV can still be seen in radar imagery from the KILX

    The 19Z RAOB from KILX shows the stable airmass with MLCIN near -200
    J/kg. However, the hodograph does show decent clockwise curvature
    within the lowest 3 km and moderate mid-level flow. This is likely a
    good proximity hodograph for later storms which are expected to form
    near this MCV later this afternoon/early evening.=20

    Despite the lackluster storm development thus far, this is expected
    to change in the next 1 to 2 hours as this MCV moves into east
    central Illinois where the airmass was not worked over by overnight
    convection. In this region dewpoints are in the low 70s with
    temperatures in the mid 80s with the SPC mesoanalysis suggesting
    2000 J/kg MLCAPE. This instability, combined with 45 to 50 knots of
    effective shear per 19Z ILX RAOB and SPC mesoanalysis should be
    sufficient for supercell development. Any supercells which develop
    may have a risk of all hazards including a couple of tornadoes. The
    tornado threat will likely be greatest in a narrow corridor where
    winds are backed to southerly near the MCV and near the warm front
    where low-level vorticity should be enhanced.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uSpbKYw4Zrcw9Vp1SyAqu5OdZ06nJ9D6L-_GgjvshBv4QF0PJptHZvfjxSObdbFXeT6VYLC_$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39828860 40048872 40738869 41348849 41618788 41638701
    41768622 41718552 41488527 40798527 40108660 40048723
    39728838 39828860=20

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