• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1035

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 20 19:03:09 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 201903
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201902=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-202100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1035
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0202 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Iowa...northern Missouri...and northeast
    Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 201902Z - 202100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may develop along
    a southeastward moving cold front by the mid afternoon hours. The
    strongest storms may pose a severe hail and damaging wind risk. A
    watch is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows a growing field of
    cumulus along the southern IA/NE border in the vicinity of a cold
    front and nearby surface trough (with a shallower field noted along
    the front stretching back to the southwest into northern KS). The
    cumulus along the IA/NE border have taken on more agitated
    characteristics with some vertical development noted in the past
    30-60 minutes. Modified morning soundings, as well as RAP forecast
    soundings and mesoanalysis estimates, suggest that MLCIN is waning
    as temperatures climb into the upper 80s with upper 60s/low 70s
    dewpoints. These trends suggests that convective initiation is
    possible in the coming hours (likely by mid afternoon) - initially
    within the IA/NE cumulus field and then possibly along the cold
    front to the southwest.=20

    A favorable parameter space just ahead of the cold front (1000-2000
    J/kg MLCAPE and 40-45 knots of effective bulk shear) should support
    strong convection. Deep-layer flow oriented nearly orthogonal to the
    cold front may support initially discrete to semi-discrete modes
    that may pose a hail/wind threat. However, slightly cooler/stable
    outflow from prior convection across northern MO/southern IA and
    increasing inhibition southwestward into KS introduce some
    uncertainty into the spatial extent of the threat. Air mass recovery
    trends across northern MO/southern IA will continue to be monitored
    and a watch is possible in the coming hours.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 06/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pH9LtB04b9CYLu6Hi1Z9J1is_btTqXJbXXt9CZE1ft8LIkD6UGNQZonf6CrNChzp6kH1dKab$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 38819335 38559437 38679510 39019568 39579599 40189580
    40449556 41339500 42119447 42039323 41669232 40549228
    39509243 38819335=20



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