• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1034

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 20 18:43:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 201843
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201843=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-202015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1034
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0143 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    Areas affected...central SC northeastward into eastern NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 201843Z - 202015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of transient supercells may pose an isolated risk
    for a tornado or two through the afternoon. It is uncertain whether
    a tornado watch is needed.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery this afternoon shows developing storms
    over central SC to the east and ahead of the center of Claudette.=20
    Additional storms exhibiting supercellular characteristics have been
    observed over northeast NC during the past 30 minutes. The airmass
    over the Carolina Piedmont/coastal plain has destabilized with
    temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.=20
    Based on 88D VAD data, the largest hodograph is observed from the
    Morehead City, NC VAD where some veering and strengthening of winds
    to 30-35 kt at 2km AGL was noted. Weaker flow was sampled by the
    Raleigh, NC and Columbia, SC VADs and their hodographs were much
    more limited in size. As it stands, it appears the highest
    conditional risk for a tornado is over parts of eastern NC during
    the afternoon due to the larger hodographs.

    ..Smith.. 06/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rSiO1oKsTSDPs1H6lZxOLkB04y7FJpDXwv-Kc7_gfymXhvmUSRtchMcZ2nYNiJfvailg_GcE$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 33928150 34578099 36117671 36027606 35557625 34957761
    33508103 33568151 33928150=20



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