• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1033

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 20 18:11:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 201811
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201810=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-201945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1033
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0110 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    Areas affected...central and north-central IA...southeast
    MN...west-central WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 201810Z - 201945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging gusts and some risk for
    large hail with the stronger cores are expected this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a cumulus field over
    northern IA and southern MN in wake of an eastward-moving MCV
    located near La Crosse, WI. At the surface, a low was analyzed at
    1pm over west-central MN with a cold front extending southward into
    eastern NE. Temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s across
    west-central IA northeastward to the I-35 corridor near the MN/IA
    border. Overlapping the thermal ridge, a moist axis extends from
    southwest to northeast with dewpoints ranging from mid 70s in
    southwest IA to the mid 60s in north-central IA. RAP forecast
    soundings show around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE near the IA/MN border at 1pm
    but additional heating/destabilization will result in 2000 J/kg in a
    few hours.=20=20

    Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level disturbance moving into
    eastern SD early this afternoon. Increasing large-scale ascent with
    this feature and a weakening cap will lead to thunderstorms
    developing over southern MN into western portions of IA this
    afternoon. Strong to severe multicells and a few supercells will be
    possible with the stronger activity. A coalescing into a band of
    storms is expected with time, especially with farther north extent.=20
    It remains uncertain how far and how quickly the severe risk will
    develop eastward into west-central WI and far southeast MN/northeast
    IA given the recovery/destabilization needed to occur in wake of the
    early day convection.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 06/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qscbmH58iLFlT-5DPZ2TzU6_o5CeJIdhyqUxomUmNh2qwSIx8tAoWtzmFuDly33d8sqsActH$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 42419492 43809467 44859357 45029257 44769188 43779135
    43399224 41939305 41859384 41909463 42419492=20



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