• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1032

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 20 15:58:09 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 201558
    SPC MCD 201557=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1032
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1057 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    Areas affected...far southeast IA...far northeast MO...much of
    central into northern IL...northwest IN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 201557Z - 201800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A watch will likely be needed for parts the mid MS Valley
    across IL and into northwest IN. Storms are expected to develop,
    intensify, and pose a severe risk as they move from near the
    IL/IA/MO border east-northeast across IL to the southern shore of
    Lake MI during the afternoon and early evening. Convective trends
    will be monitored through the late morning and into the midday hours
    for an eventual likely watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic late this morning shows a series of MCVs
    located from northeast IA, central IA, and northern MO moving east.=20
    Visible satellite shows a growing thunderstorm cluster across
    northern MO associated with the southern-most MCV. Surface analysis
    places an outflow boundary from northeast MO east into central IL.=20
    South of the boundary, southerly surface winds and temperatures in
    the lower 80s with dewpoints near 70 deg F are noted as of 10am
    observations. North of the boundary, cloud debris has tempered
    surface heating with temperatures ranging from the mid 70s from a
    Quincy to Peoria line and lower 70s over northern IL.

    Model guidance varies considerably regarding the details of
    potential convective evolution across central and northern IL this
    afternoon. As a result, there is relatively large uncertainty.=20
    However, timing of the MCV and its eastward translation would lead
    to the potential for storm development and a corresponding risk for
    severe as it progresses east across the middle MS Valley. Forecast
    sounding show moderate destabilization across central IL by early to
    mid afternoon (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Equally important, the low
    to mid-level flow fields strengthen and forecast hodographs enlarge
    during the mid to late afternoon. Consequently, it seems the risk
    for organized severe storms (including bows or supercells or mix
    thereof) and the associated severe hazards will increase coincident
    with this wind field response. Due to the large spread in possible
    solutions for this forecast, observational trends will
    disproportionately weigh in the decision of a potential severe-storm
    watch issuance.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 06/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rWJqycyM8FupDo_OhAqbflmFzPNudNdaN_4nw4qgZVybRK0u3yQ17JzpgbXx08xCOU9WeGha$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39309102 39829185 40579196 41649092 42008766 41378701
    40188735 39309102=20

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