Mesoscale Discussion 1031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021
Areas affected...north FL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 201501Z - 201700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are
possible across north FL late this morning into the midday hours.=20
Expected coverage/magnitude of a potential severe risk will likely
remain too low to warrant a watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic late this morning shows a cluster of
intensifying storms on the southeastern periphery of Claudette's
circulation. A very moist airmass is located over north FL with
upper 70s deg F dewpoints at multiple observation sites.=20
Jacksonville's 88D VAD data shows some veering and strengthening of
flow in the lowest 1km, which has led to some hodograph enlargement. Additionally, RAP forecast soundings also show this modest hodograph enlargement. However, the relatively moist and poor lapse rate
profile will limit overall updraft strength and downdraft potential.
The severe risk with these storms could include a low possibility
for a weak/brief tornado or a strong gust or two. Given this
expected threat in terms of the magnitude and its confined spatial
extent, a watch issuance is unlikely.
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