• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1031

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 20 15:02:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 201502
    SPC MCD 201501=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1031
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1001 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    Areas affected...north FL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 201501Z - 201700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are
    possible across north FL late this morning into the midday hours.=20
    Expected coverage/magnitude of a potential severe risk will likely
    remain too low to warrant a watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic late this morning shows a cluster of
    intensifying storms on the southeastern periphery of Claudette's
    circulation. A very moist airmass is located over north FL with
    upper 70s deg F dewpoints at multiple observation sites.=20
    Jacksonville's 88D VAD data shows some veering and strengthening of
    flow in the lowest 1km, which has led to some hodograph enlargement. Additionally, RAP forecast soundings also show this modest hodograph enlargement. However, the relatively moist and poor lapse rate
    profile will limit overall updraft strength and downdraft potential.
    The severe risk with these storms could include a low possibility
    for a weak/brief tornado or a strong gust or two. Given this
    expected threat in terms of the magnitude and its confined spatial
    extent, a watch issuance is unlikely.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 06/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o7PqVIyRUw8nOAtdXAd7HcsjfiHQxYQIJYtgy23c2IlSNlQQATgJ144bDvBps_BUlTI5rbRI$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29438269 30028221 29998180 29788168 29588175 29288259

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