• STRMDISC: TD Claudette 11

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun Jun 20 07:56:00 2021
    846
    WTNT43 KNHC 200848
    TCDAT3

    Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 11
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
    400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    The area of deep convection near the center of Claudette has
    weakened over the past several hours, though rain bands have become
    more distinct in the southeastern quadrant. Surface observations
    continue to indicate that the maximum winds are about 25 kt, and
    these winds are almost all over the Gulf of Mexico well to the
    south of the center.

    Claudette is moving east-northeastward at about 11 kt. The system
    should gradually accelelerate in that direction through tonight as
    it moves ahead of a digging trough over the central United States,
    and all of the models show the system near the North Carolina coast
    by midday Monday. Claudette should then move even faster to the
    northeast through Tuesday ahead of the aforementioned trough due to
    stronger steering flow. Guidance remains in very good agreement
    through that time, and little change was made to the previous
    forecast. The end of the forecast remains uncertain as some of
    the guidance is showing more of a turn to the left closer to Nova
    Scotia. However, a stronger system would argue for something that
    remains more separate from the large mid-latitude trough steering
    the system, so the new forecast is close to the previous one, on
    the south side of the guidance.

    Conditions appear to be conducive for the re-development of
    Claudette once it encounters a more unstable marine environment
    late today. The system should move close to the Gulf Stream by
    Monday afternoon, likely fueling intensification while the shear is
    low. The previously divergent model suite is in better agreement
    now, with the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF models all showing the system
    becoming a tropical storm again near the North Carolina Outer Banks
    with some strengthening over the western Atlantic Ocean.
    Extratropical transiton should be quick after it moves north of
    the Gulf Stream, assisted by strong shear in 48 to 60 hours. The
    new intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one,
    close to the NOAA Corrected Consensus Guidance.

    Key Messages:

    1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
    flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northern Alabama,
    and Georgia through this morning, and into the Carolinas through
    Monday morning. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream
    flooding impacts are possible across these areas.

    2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
    North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
    Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
    northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
    Storm Watch is in effect.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 20/0900Z 33.3N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
    12H 20/1800Z 33.8N 83.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
    24H 21/0600Z 34.7N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
    36H 21/1800Z 36.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
    48H 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    60H 22/1800Z 42.7N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 23/0600Z 46.5N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Blake
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