Mesoscale Discussion 1029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021
Areas affected...Florida Panhandle...Far Southeast
Concerning...Tornado Watch 292...
Valid 201000Z - 201200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292 continues.
SUMMARY...A tornado threat is likely to continue for a couple more
hours across parts of the Florida Panhandle, far southeast Alabama
and southwest Georgia. Another tornado watch may be needed beyond
the 7 am EDT expiration of tornado watch 292.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a couple of bands of
thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Claudette. The first
is located from far southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia, with
the second smaller band located across the Florida Panhandle.
Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are contributing to
moderate instability, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to
2000 J/Kg range. In addition, the Tallahassee WSR-88D VWP has a
strong wind field in the low to mid-levels. 0-1 km shear is measured
near 25 kt with 0-3 km storm-relative helicities around 200 m2/s2.
Low-level shear is likely even stronger in southwest Georgia where
the southern edge of a jet near 850 mb is located. Due to the strong
low-level shear, cells embedded in these two bands will have a
chance to be supercellular and produce tornadoes. Although tornadoes
may be brief, the threat should at least continue for a couple more
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