• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1029

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 20 10:00:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 201000
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201000=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-201200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1029
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0500 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    Areas affected...Florida Panhandle...Far Southeast
    Alabama...Southwest Georgia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 292...

    Valid 201000Z - 201200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292 continues.

    SUMMARY...A tornado threat is likely to continue for a couple more
    hours across parts of the Florida Panhandle, far southeast Alabama
    and southwest Georgia. Another tornado watch may be needed beyond
    the 7 am EDT expiration of tornado watch 292.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a couple of bands of
    thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Claudette. The first
    is located from far southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia, with
    the second smaller band located across the Florida Panhandle.
    Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are contributing to
    moderate instability, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to
    2000 J/Kg range. In addition, the Tallahassee WSR-88D VWP has a
    strong wind field in the low to mid-levels. 0-1 km shear is measured
    near 25 kt with 0-3 km storm-relative helicities around 200 m2/s2.
    Low-level shear is likely even stronger in southwest Georgia where
    the southern edge of a jet near 850 mb is located. Due to the strong
    low-level shear, cells embedded in these two bands will have a
    chance to be supercellular and produce tornadoes. Although tornadoes
    may be brief, the threat should at least continue for a couple more
    hours.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tJ7eDiQOxuOk1WhnzUEzJhfsdGZ9Nmex3DUFYIeR3ZzHZZvEkFdVzUpsNMeZ7SHk-NUV8KHo$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 31618517 32488415 32978319 32548213 31638160 30808190
    30008299 29698444 29608498 29658532 30048576 30698556
    31448522 31618517=20



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