• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1022

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 20 00:15:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 200014
    SPC MCD 200014=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1022
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0714 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    Areas affected...southern Michigan...northeast Indiana...and
    northwest Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 200014Z - 200145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Recent vigorous storm development along the eastern shore
    of Lake Michigan may pose a risk for mainly damaging wind gusts or
    severe hail this evening. Storms may continue into the first part of
    the overnight across Ohio and Indiana. A weather watch is uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2350 UTC, KIWX radar data showed several
    strong/severe storms developing along a modified lake
    breeze/stationary front across southern Michigan and northern
    Indiana. Visible data shows several areas of agitated cumulus along
    the front and ahead of the ongoing storms suggesting additional
    development is likely. SPC mesoanalysis indicates these storms are
    moving into an environment supportive of severe weather potential
    with moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient
    deep-layer shear (30-40 kts) for organized updrafts. Straight but
    elongated hodographs and shear vectors largely parallel to the
    stationary front will favor more linear/cluster modes as increasing
    storm coverage/interactions develop. Damaging winds appear to be the
    greatest threat though the degree of buoyancy and some potential for
    initial supercell structures may also support a threat for large
    hail. Low confidence in convective evolution exists currently.
    However, if a deeper cold pool can develop concurrent with an
    increase in the low-level jet, damaging wind potential may increase
    downstream across portions of northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio
    later tonight. Convective trends will be monitored for a possible
    weather watch.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oIb4dmchFG1zRwym1RvJAkGEW5WuEjYWFHYpg7aBtNHROI5RuU_2PmELuHWR66wL5SqvyPNO$=
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    LAT...LON 42378615 42358513 42238456 41758419 41388411 40838404
    40388412 40018445 39758521 39848586 40318666 40698692
    40968705 41198725 41458739 41748729 41948686 42158649

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