• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1020

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 19 23:07:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 192307
    SPC MCD 192307=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1020
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0607 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 192307Z - 200030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms have shown greater organization and
    increasing severe potential over the last 30 minutes. A few
    supercells have recently evolved and may pose a risk for strong
    winds, hail, or a brief tornado into this evening. Uncertainty on
    storm evolution and longevity remains high. A weather watch is
    possible, but uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...Along a diffuse frontal zone from eastern Ohio and
    western Pennsylvania, several small storms have developed early this
    evening. RADAR and satellite obs suggest these storms have become
    better organized over the last 30 minutes, with a couple of
    supercells noted east of Cleveland and north of Pittsburgh. Severe
    potential may be increasing as convection continues through an
    environment characterized by weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1000
    J/kg) and sufficient (40-50 kts) deep-layer shear for supercells.
    Locally backed surface winds along the front were contributing to
    somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs with 0-1km SRH around 100
    m2/s2. While not overly supportive of severe weather, storms may
    pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, or a brief tornado across
    far eastern OH and western PA this evening.=20

    Farther to the east, the airmass remains much less favorable for
    severe weather owing to persistent cloud cover and cooler
    temperatures. Any severe threat that does evolve will likely be
    confined spatial and temporally. Convective trends will be monitored
    for a possible weather watch, though high uncertainty in storm
    evolution remains.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tAuFj3MHE0PEl26WtAcFK6_yQ7MGKCe2ORLmx3MErEINJzULoFm6jiy11LIbAhXdKmYERJbi$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41378165 41678083 41598025 41427977 40977941 40577939
    40197977 40098027 40228069 40568110 40728138 41068184

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