• STRMDISC: TD Claudette D9

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Jun 19 18:16:00 2021
    361
    WTNT43 KNHC 192033
    TCDAT3

    Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 9
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
    400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    Claudette continues to move inland with its center now located
    over southwestern Alabama. Surface observations indicate that the
    system has weakened, and based on that information the initial
    intensity is lowered to 30 kt. This makes Claudette a tropical
    depression. The cyclone is still producing gusty winds and bands
    of heavy rain across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and
    the Florida Panhandle.

    As expected, the tropical depression has turned to the northeast
    and accelerated some, with the latest initial motion estimated to
    be 040/14 kt. A turn to the east-northeast is expected
    tonight and Sunday as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the
    north side of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the
    system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next couple
    of days and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic
    Canada early next week. The models remain in relatively good
    agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
    guidance envelope. This forecast is very similar to the previous
    one, except again a little to the right at the longer range forecast
    times.

    Some additional weakening seems likely during the next day or so
    while Claudette moves across the southeast U.S. However, most of
    the models show the system regaining some strength when it moves
    across the Carolinas and over the western Atlantic waters Sunday
    night and Monday. This predicted strengthening is likely due in
    part to baroclinic processes. The 12Z ECMWF is weaker than previous
    runs, and overall the remainder of the intensity guidance is largely
    unchanged from the previous cyclone. Based on the latest models,
    the NHC intensity forecast is just an update of previous one and
    lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Once the system moves
    north of the Gulf Stream Current in a few days, it is forecast to
    transition to an extratropical cyclone prior to reaching Atlantic
    Canada.

    Key Messages:

    1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
    flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama,
    and Georgia through tonight, and into the Carolinas on Sunday.
    Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
    expected across these areas.

    2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
    North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
    Watch is in effect.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 19/2100Z 32.2N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
    12H 20/0600Z 32.9N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
    24H 20/1800Z 33.7N 82.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
    36H 21/0600Z 34.6N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
    48H 21/1800Z 36.4N 73.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
    60H 22/0600Z 39.1N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
    72H 22/1800Z 42.3N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 23/1800Z 51.0N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)