• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1019

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 19 22:11:35 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 192211
    SPC MCD 192211=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1019
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0511 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    Areas affected...eastern MO...western IL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287...

    Valid 192211Z - 192315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287

    SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds continues to be possible
    with storms across the watch area.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of severe storms was in progress in the St.
    Louis area at 2210z, with a history of damaging winds and severe
    hail. New development was occurring upstream in the vicinity of
    Hannibal, MO, where upwards of 4000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present. The
    region is on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, and
    35-40 kts of northwesterly effective shear will continue to be
    conducive for supercells with a wind and hail threat. Where
    additional storm mergers occur, a more concentrated damaging wind
    risk will be possible with southward moving clusters.

    ..Bunting.. 06/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!scLNgACAJxwNPzwAkgSBJUYiqLUlaRY_myZLxHKQ1Y1r0ZusKWvRoh_RtFmfvNf9lnWU1kFF$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 37958976 38259084 38729161 38909179 39559224 40009224
    39939144 39789066 39288972 39018958 38508921 37958976=20

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