Mesoscale Discussion 1019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
Areas affected...eastern MO...western IL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287...
Valid 192211Z - 192315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287
SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds continues to be possible
with storms across the watch area.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of severe storms was in progress in the St.
Louis area at 2210z, with a history of damaging winds and severe
hail. New development was occurring upstream in the vicinity of
Hannibal, MO, where upwards of 4000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present. The
region is on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, and
35-40 kts of northwesterly effective shear will continue to be
conducive for supercells with a wind and hail threat. Where
additional storm mergers occur, a more concentrated damaging wind
risk will be possible with southward moving clusters.
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