Mesoscale Discussion 1018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado...Southwestern Nebraska...and Northwestern Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286...
Valid 192200Z - 192330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286
SUMMARY...An organized wind threat is developing this
afternoon/evening across northeastern Colorado, southwestern
Nebraska, and northwestern Kansas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
be needed downstream of WW286.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms across the eastern Nebraska Panhandle and northeastern Colorado are rapidly growing upscale and surging east-southeastward/eastward. Given the favorable environment
downstream, characterized by steep lapse rates, over 2000 J/kg of
MUCAPE, and 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, continued upscale
growth and organization is expected. In addition, the southerly
low-level jet is expected to increase this evening across central
Kansas, providing additional support for convective maintenance and organization. All factors are supportive of the development of a severe-wind-producing MCS, including potential for significant
severe winds, over the next several hours.
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