• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1018

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 19 22:00:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 192200
    SPC MCD 192200=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1018
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0500 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado...Southwestern Nebraska...and Northwestern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286...

    Valid 192200Z - 192330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286

    SUMMARY...An organized wind threat is developing this
    afternoon/evening across northeastern Colorado, southwestern
    Nebraska, and northwestern Kansas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
    be needed downstream of WW286.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms across the eastern Nebraska Panhandle and northeastern Colorado are rapidly growing upscale and surging east-southeastward/eastward. Given the favorable environment
    downstream, characterized by steep lapse rates, over 2000 J/kg of
    MUCAPE, and 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, continued upscale
    growth and organization is expected. In addition, the southerly
    low-level jet is expected to increase this evening across central
    Kansas, providing additional support for convective maintenance and organization. All factors are supportive of the development of a severe-wind-producing MCS, including potential for significant
    severe winds, over the next several hours.

    ..Jirak/Guyer.. 06/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tNBV2tyHssTcWxZV8qTwDRGFRuFZ8K4ZDjrnIRzmZqFIxy5CDTxF6VHm2rRbgmJtW_SQndp0$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39910363 40420368 40820348 41340294 41680270 41440154
    41100057 40969964 40529908 39839885 39389923 38999999
    38850164 38900310 39120374 39910363=20

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