• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1015

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 19 20:34:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 192034
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192033=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-192200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1015
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0333 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    Areas affected...far southeast AL...southwest into south-central GA

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 285...

    Valid 192033Z - 192200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 285 continues.

    SUMMARY...The most favorable corridor for a tornado will focus along
    the maritime warm front/differential heating zone draped from west
    to east across southern GA. An additional tornado watch may be
    considered towards the expiration time of tornado watch 285 (8pm
    EDT) or if storms begin to exhibit tornadic supercell potential to
    the east of tornado watch 285.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms in a mix of discrete cells and
    bands of deep convection continue to slowly shift to the northeast
    across southeast AL/southwest GA. A maritime warm
    front/differential heating zone is stationary and draped from west
    to east across southeast AL eastward into south-central GA. As
    stronger updrafts interact with this vorticity rich zone, a greater
    probability for low-level mesocyclone development and a tornado risk
    has been apparent so far this afternoon. Expecting the relationship
    of an increased threat for storm-scale rotation and the differential
    heating zone to continue through the remainder of the afternoon and
    perhaps into the early evening. As the boundary layer slowly cools,
    storm coverage will likely decrease this evening with the overall
    conditional tornado risk to spatially contract and possibly become
    quite limited by mid evening.

    ..Smith.. 06/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!urJ9zt7v7fMYwsXtQ9N_wVaOqieEVFL6frquF5qtaAwK7FLNzNJhDZqjqdLJKudsNH1VGJvH$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

    LAT...LON 32098537 32338390 32108260 31498271 31568528 32098537=20



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