• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1014

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 19 19:45:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 191944
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191944=20
    MEZ000-192115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1014
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0244 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Maine

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 191944Z - 192115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging winds are possible
    through the early evening.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms which had previously struggled to
    organize has strengthened in the last 15 to 30 minutes. This is
    likely the result of these storms reaching better low-level moisture/convergence where low-level flow is more backed and
    advecting off the ocean. The KGYX VWP shows 50 knots of flow around
    5 km which is sufficient for storm organization. This line of storms
    is a combination of both bowing segments and embedded supercells.
    The thermodynamic environment is not overly favorable with MLCAPE
    around 500 J/kg, but isolated large hail, damaging wind, or even a
    tornado remains possible. A watch is unlikely due to the limited
    instability as well as the relatively short duration of the threat
    before storms move offshore.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qpe1gCbtFORm-zhDPuHya7JDAmI7iKRRBgbzemjjzVOe75UtDvgPyG7GMhn-uP0xMIZHuQMR$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

    LAT...LON 43987025 45286943 46656827 47126793 47176732 46316757
    45676729 45176692 44776690 44476717 43786858 43576993
    43987025=20



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