Mesoscale Discussion 1014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
Areas affected...Eastern Maine
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 191944Z - 192115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging winds are possible
through the early evening.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms which had previously struggled to
organize has strengthened in the last 15 to 30 minutes. This is
likely the result of these storms reaching better low-level moisture/convergence where low-level flow is more backed and
advecting off the ocean. The KGYX VWP shows 50 knots of flow around
5 km which is sufficient for storm organization. This line of storms
is a combination of both bowing segments and embedded supercells.
The thermodynamic environment is not overly favorable with MLCAPE
around 500 J/kg, but isolated large hail, damaging wind, or even a
tornado remains possible. A watch is unlikely due to the limited
instability as well as the relatively short duration of the threat
before storms move offshore.
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