• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1013

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 19 19:12:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 191912
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191912=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-192045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1013
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0212 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    Areas affected...east-central Missouri and west-central Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 191912Z - 192045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A few supercells are possible in the next 1 to 2 hours and
    may grow upscale into a cluster. The primary threat will likely be
    large hail with some threat for damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...An area of agitated cumulus has developed on the
    eastern periphery of an EML plume extending from the Plains into
    central Missouri. Within this cu field one storm has recently formed
    near the Mississippi river north of Saint Louis. In this region,
    dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s with temperatures in the mid 80s
    to near 90. This warming/moistening has proven sufficient to reduce
    inhibition across this region with little CINH remaining according
    to SPC mesoanalysis. In addition, SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE
    around 2500 to 3000 J/kg.=20

    Regional VWPs and SPC mesoanalysis shows around 40 to 45 knots of
    northwesterly shear across the region. This should be sufficient for
    storms to organize into supercells. While 12Z CAM guidance has
    struggled with the timing and evolution of this activity, there is
    consensus for upscale growth into a cluster once storms develop from
    each of the CAMS. However, the downstream airmass becomes less
    favorable with less instability and increasing
    inhibition/subsidence. Therefore, this activity may struggle to
    propagate forward and may back build westward toward the greater
    instability through the afternoon/evening. While damaging wind may
    be possible, large hail will likely be the greatest threat with this
    activity.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oP2CRt_YQHbmF9UrWeJfvWuY8uROGAyVqT2O4AmILoM60RKnlKIwmvvRT4JKy3B8PFmtaBEF$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 38168947 37849062 38019172 38539225 39169261 39569264
    39699223 39839124 39668987 39318933 38768907 38168947=20



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