• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1012

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 19 18:47:30 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 191847
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191846=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-192015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1012
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0146 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    Areas affected...east-central and northeast CO...NE Panhandle...far
    southeast WY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 191846Z - 192015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for
    northeastern CO and parts of western NE. Large hail and severe
    gusts will be the initial threats before a transition to a more
    widespread risk for severe gusts towards early evening as storms
    move towards the KS border.

    DISCUSSION...Midday water-vapor imagery shows a subtle disturbance
    moving east across southern WY and towards the central High Plains.=20
    At the surface, strong heating is resulting in temperatures warming
    through the 80s across east-central CO northward into the NE
    Panhandle. Storms are beginning to develop over the Front Range
    where upwards of 2000 J/kg SBCAPE in the greater Denver area by RAP
    forecast soundings.=20=20

    Expecting storms to gradually develop over the next 1-3 hours in the
    vicinity of the I-25 corridor from Pikes Peak northward to the
    Cheyenne Ridge. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates will favor
    the risk for isolated hail/severe gusts to become more common as
    storms intensify as they move east into richer low-level moisture
    (longitude of Akron and areas east).=20=20

    Forecast shear profiles will be strongest over northeast CO into the
    NE Panhandle where southeasterly surface winds veering to 30 kt
    westerly in the mid levels supports 30-40 kt effective shear. Of
    particular note, suite of convection-allowing model guidance from
    this morning showed a unanimous depiction of storms growing upscale
    into a squall line over northeast CO and moving into northwest KS
    and southwest NE by early evening.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 06/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qsYEbtTUz67gP19pglUlcuIJfabS_1M86jNV5wd1zadcUG4xUs7Z5bam7RROo1bpVGFFFFLC$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42240391 42350297 41980207 38450205 38210243 38280373
    38820443 41530446 42240391=20



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