• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1010

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 19 16:38:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 191638
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191638=20
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-191815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1010
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1138 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Vermont/New Hampshire into
    western/northern Maine

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 191638Z - 191815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few supercells capable of marginally severe hail and
    wind damage are possible through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...An upper-low is moving across Quebec which is bringing
    cool temperatures aloft across the Northeast. Meanwhile, at the
    surface, temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s to low 80s. As
    the boundary layer has warmed, deep mixing has dropped dewpoints
    into the low to mid 50s across the region. This has kept instability
    limited to around 500 J/kg which should be maintained throughout the
    day and may increase to around 1000 J/kg as the surface continues to
    warm and dewpoints stabilize within the well mixed boundary layer.
    The 1630Z VWP from CCX indicates around 40 to 45 kts of westerly
    flow between 3 and 4 km. This shear will support rotating updrafts
    which may be strong enough for some marginally severe hail and
    isolated damaging winds (given the well mixed sub cloud layer and
    moderately strong flow above 2km) despite an otherwise less than
    favorable thermodynamic environment.

    A watch is not likely given the isolated and marginal nature of the
    threat.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rc5BkAmvD5v7tJADKB9j7OE0_L6qOo4Ql25v_itKGjwLHIEZgtxYmODXil1f4LMmbEdEhDQ5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

    LAT...LON 45047255 45037157 45397137 45437099 45897044 46597015
    47116975 47466919 47596855 47396824 45766865 45106923
    44516971 44077028 43717144 43587231 43827289 44067301
    44357308 45047255=20



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