• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1009

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 19 16:16:30 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 191616
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191615=20
    ILZ000-191815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1009
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1115 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    Areas affected...parts of central and south-central IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 191615Z - 191815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A mesoscale area of hail potential will seemingly focus
    over parts of central and south-central IL through the midday hours.
    There is relatively large uncertainty in the evolution of this small thunderstorm cluster beyond 1pm.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several outflows from overnight
    thunderstorm complexes over the OH Valley trailing westward into the
    mid MS Valley. An area of stronger thunderstorm cores has developed
    over central IL late this morning on the western periphery of the
    influence of the thunderstorm cluster near the IN/KY border.=20
    Surface temperatures at 11am are relatively mild (low to mid 70s deg
    F) owing to some cloud debris but clearing skies will enable
    stronger heating to occur downstream of the central IL thunderstorm
    cluster. It is unclear whether this convection will remain elevated
    or transition to surface based over the next few hours. It is this uncertainty, coupled with differing model guidance, that lends
    question to the potential spatial extent of severe thunderstorm
    activity this afternoon. Nonetheless, it appears ample flow exists
    across this region to support organized storms (reference the St.
    Louis WSR-88D VAD data). Given the limited spatial extent of the
    ongoing strong to severe thunderstorms over central IL late this
    morning, this will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch
    issuance. However, convective trends will continue to be monitored
    over the next few hours for a possible greater-than-expected severe
    risk.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 06/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oSW8qhUfDQyg2gyyTXQmxK58JaHL7lgIUJLaBDAYiZEwFh27COHYymW9EUmiKBAhk1VIkGH3$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39879041 39168847 38818838 38688873 39419083 39709070
    39879041=20



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