• STRMDISC: TS Claudette D7

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Jun 19 10:31:00 2021
    758
    WTNT43 KNHC 190859
    TCDAT3

    Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 7
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
    400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    The system that we have been tracking for a few days finally has
    enough of a well-defined center and organized convection to be
    considered a tropical storm. While the organization is not
    classical by any means, and there are some hybrid characteristics,
    the cyclone most resembles a sheared tropical storm, so the system
    is now Tropical Storm Claudette. The initial wind speed remains 40
    kt, in line with surface observations and radar. These winds are
    primarily occurring in a strong band on the eastern side of the
    cyclone well away from the center.

    Claudette is moving north-northeastward at about 10 kt. The storm
    should turn northeastward and east-northeastward over the next day
    or so while it moves around the northern side of the subtropical
    ridge and gradually weakens to a depression/post-tropical cyclone.
    The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all of the
    reliable global models, save the GFS, are showing the system
    regenerating near or offshore of the North Carolina coast in 60 to
    72 hours. Thus the forecast has been extended from the last one
    and now shows the system as a tropical cyclone over the western
    Atlantic Ocean. The new intensity forecast is more conservative
    than most of the guidance, but is higher than the previous advisory.
    Extratropical transition is expected by 96 hours near Nova Scotia.

    Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
    should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
    wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Impacts
    along the northern Gulf coast will continue.

    Key Messages:

    1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and
    life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and
    Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle through the
    afternoon. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
    will continue through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast,
    with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions
    of the Southeast.

    2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the
    central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
    Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These
    winds will spread inland and continue through this afternoon.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 19/0900Z 29.6N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
    12H 19/1800Z 30.9N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
    24H 20/0600Z 32.2N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
    36H 20/1800Z 33.3N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    48H 21/0600Z 34.2N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    60H 21/1800Z 35.8N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    72H 22/0600Z 38.5N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
    96H 23/0600Z 47.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Blake
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