• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1008

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 19 13:33:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 191333
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191333=20
    FLZ000-ALZ000-191430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1008
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0833 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    Areas affected...southern AL...FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 284...

    Valid 191333Z - 191430Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 284 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for a tornado or two will probably continue
    through the morning and into the afternoon. A tornado watch will be
    considered later this morning to the east of tornado watch 284.

    DISCUSSION...KMOB radar imagery shows a couple of embedded rotating
    updrafts over southern AL and far western part of the FL Panhandle
    as of 1330 UTC. The 12 UTC Tallahassee raob showed ample buoyancy
    (1400 J/kg MLCAPE). The raob likely sampled to the east of the
    moist axis, which was located farther west over the western FL
    Panhandle where surface dewpoints are 2-4 deg F higher.=20=20

    The KEVX VAD data has shown an increase in 3-km AGL flow with speeds
    increasing from 40 to 50 kt during the past 2 hours. As a result,
    the hodograph has enlarged and around 240 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is noted.
    Given the very moist/strongly sheared low levels, it seems plausible
    it will continue to remain favorable for mesocyclogenesis during the
    morning. The stronger and more persistent circulations will be
    capable of a couple of tornadoes. As the primary band translates
    east and north during the morning, the risk for a tornado will
    probably spread into parts of southeast AL and potentially the
    central part of the FL Panhandle later this morning and into the
    afternoon.

    ..Smith.. 06/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vJ3Jz4eI7BR4vBRjQvsYttxPLO3YIJyViCwKT42QmbOhnL_GZcaiga-3zsmiu3QrxCpws_yq$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 29978569 30358640 30218776 31428731 32058690 32028606
    31598547 30758521 30188525 29918562 29978569=20



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