• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1007

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 19 07:11:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 190711
    SPC MCD 190710=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1007
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0210 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast Iowa...Far Northeast Missouri...Central Illinois...South-central Indiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282...283...

    Valid 190710Z - 190915Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282, 283

    SUMMARY...A wind-damage and hail threat will likely continue across
    parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley for
    several more hours as a linear MCS organizes. Weather watch issuance
    may be needed downstream across south-central Indiana late tonight.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a east-to-west line of
    strong to severe thunderstorms from southeast Iowa into
    north-central Illinois. This convection is located to the north of a quasi-stationary front. The RAP is analyzing a relatively tight
    gradient of moderate instability from southeast Iowa
    east-southeastward into central Illinois, where MLCAPE is estimated
    at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. Regional WSR-88D VWPs along this corridor have
    0-6km shear in the 45 to 50 kt range suggesting an organized severe
    threat will continue across the region late tonight. High-resolution
    models suggest that the line will gradually obtain a
    northeast-southwest orientation, which will promote the development
    of a cold pool. The development of the cold pool should coincide
    with the organization of a linear MCS, which is forecast to move east-southeastward across central Illinois and south-central Indiana
    toward daybreak. Wind-damage will be possible along the leading edge
    of this organized line segment.

    ..Broyles.. 06/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tlNjfiyNbc17tgk32R8b2mcbUZSVxN06Xl6zibu-h43Kk1QGEXAhZhwfeDmTtEXkRCl5x4FJ$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38548600 39228871 40069156 40539274 41039276 41289193
    40868902 39648561 38548600=20

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