• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1006

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 19 06:08:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 190608
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190608=20
    FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-190845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1006
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0108 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    Areas affected...Far Southeast Louisiana...Far Southern
    Alabama...Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 190608Z - 190845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A tornado threat will be possible in the coastal areas
    from far southeast Louisiana eastward to the western Florida
    Panhandle. Weather watch issuance may be needed along this portion
    of the coast later tonight.

    DISCUSSION...A tropical weather system is currently located near the
    coast of Louisiana about 40 statute miles to the south-southeast of
    Morgan City. A north-to-south band of moderate to heavy rainfall is
    located about 50 statute miles to northeast of the center extending
    inland about 100 statute miles. This band of rainfall is located
    along an axis of moderate instability, with the RAP estimating
    MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The Mobile WSR-88D VWP
    currently has a looping hodograph with 0-1 km shear near 40 kt and
    0-3 storm relative helicity near 475 m2/s2. The strong low-level
    shear will likely support a tornado threat as the band of rainfall
    moves eastward along the coast. Supercells with a potential for
    tornadoes will also be possible just to the east of the band. The
    tornado threat may continue for several more hours as the band moves
    across far southern Alabama and into the far western Florida
    Panhandle around daybreak.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sYstf6mcyRFn7MGc8bZ_E3to2JddoA8lh6Rpn4MB6wNY9oujHxRUgssVdRERHHKCzZOcKlP9$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30738948 31138883 31248772 31228680 31128640 30778625
    30508629 30218672 29978815 29568903 29458916 29408934
    29478973 30048974 30738948=20



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