• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1003

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 19 02:27:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 190227
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190227=20
    ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-190430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1003
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0927 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

    Areas affected...southeast NE...southern IA...northern
    MO...west-central IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 190227Z - 190430Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
    intensity this evening and overnight with the potential for very
    large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. A watch
    will likely be needed by 0330z for parts of the discussion area for
    this scenario.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms has
    developed over southeast NE the vicinity of an east-west stationary
    front. Increasing large-scale ascent, owing to warm advection
    with a developing low-level jet and a subtle mid-level impulse
    approaching from central NE, should help focus additional
    thunderstorm development near the front over southern IA/northern MO
    during the next few hours. The environment is supportive of
    supercells with 40-45 kts of effective shear and MUCAPE in excess of
    2500 J/kg. Storms will be capable of very large hail and damaging
    downburst winds. Some tornado risk will also exist due to the
    proximity of the front, where effective SRH values are in excess of
    200 m2/s2. Storm mode should evolve into linear/bowing segments
    with time with damaging wind potential becoming more prominent.

    A watch will likely be needed for parts of the discussion area by
    0330z.

    ..Bunting/Guyer.. 06/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o-YYahFqB9CFiXbqma6_evmsGEFsfHE4QDzkh7_xb3qpdqPkIWT5jse8AeHrXz1NsNO9AKw4$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

    LAT...LON 39899069 40079280 40149399 40169710 40559721 41319587
    41689409 41789270 41679130 41319067 40959031 40429022
    39899069=20



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