• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1002

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 19 01:54:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 190154
    SPC MCD 190153=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1002
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0853 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central/southern IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 190153Z - 190330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A small cluster of severe thunderstorms will move
    east/southeast this evening with large hail and damaging winds the
    main threats. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated,
    and a watch will likely be needed prior to 03z.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms has developed near
    Springfield, IL as of 0150z, in the vicinity of an east-west front.=20
    Strong surface-based instability remains in place along with 30-35
    kts of effective shear, favoring supercells initially with a risk
    for large hail, potentially significant, in addition to damaging
    downburst winds. Strengthening warm advection this evening will
    contribute to additional thunderstorm development, with storms
    evolving into bowing segments with time and continuing to pose a
    severe risk into the early overnight hours.=20=20

    Observational trends are being monitored and a watch is likely prior
    to 03z.

    ..Bunting/Guyer.. 06/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pJedwqj5E5Nn8ZiisQUaRK8CEH8__Dosf1iqQVGznQnCifthCoLedwe6RTmZ-hn-ijLTORJ2$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38518794 38678951 39029036 39739113 40249124 40439103
    40469035 40258921 39998816 39868766 38958757 38518794=20

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