Mesoscale Discussion 1001
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
Areas affected...southern portions of IN/OH...northern KY
Concerning...Tornado Watch 279...280...
Valid 190053Z - 190200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 279, 280 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues with Tornado Watch 279
and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 280. A downstream watch may be needed south/southeast of existing watches prior to 02z.
DISCUSSION...Several supercell thunderstorms continue within WW
279/280 at 0030z, with strengthening storms also noted near the
IL/IN border near Sullivan, IN. Very large hail, isolated damaging
winds, and at least one tornado have been reported with these
intense storms. Gradual upscale growth is anticipated over the next
few hours as warm advection strengthens and promotes increasing
storm coverage. Linear bowing segments are likely to evolve with
time and continue moving east/southeast across locally extended
portions of WW 279/280 and potentially requiring issuance of one or
more downstream watches prior to 02z. Increasing MLCIN with
southward extent casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe
risk, however damaging winds, possibly significant, will become an
increasingly prominent risk over the next few hours. Severe hail
will remain possible with persistent supercell structures. Some
tornado risk will also continue with both supercell and bowing
segments given background environment low-level SRH of 200-250
Observational trends will continue to be monitored for the potential
for additional watch issuance.
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