• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1001

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 19 00:53:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 190053
    SPC MCD 190053=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1001
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0753 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

    Areas affected...southern portions of IN/OH...northern KY

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 279...280...

    Valid 190053Z - 190200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 279, 280 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues with Tornado Watch 279
    and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 280. A downstream watch may be needed south/southeast of existing watches prior to 02z.

    DISCUSSION...Several supercell thunderstorms continue within WW
    279/280 at 0030z, with strengthening storms also noted near the
    IL/IN border near Sullivan, IN. Very large hail, isolated damaging
    winds, and at least one tornado have been reported with these
    intense storms. Gradual upscale growth is anticipated over the next
    few hours as warm advection strengthens and promotes increasing
    storm coverage. Linear bowing segments are likely to evolve with
    time and continue moving east/southeast across locally extended
    portions of WW 279/280 and potentially requiring issuance of one or
    more downstream watches prior to 02z. Increasing MLCIN with
    southward extent casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe
    risk, however damaging winds, possibly significant, will become an
    increasingly prominent risk over the next few hours. Severe hail
    will remain possible with persistent supercell structures. Some
    tornado risk will also continue with both supercell and bowing
    segments given background environment low-level SRH of 200-250

    Observational trends will continue to be monitored for the potential
    for additional watch issuance.

    ..Bunting/Guyer.. 06/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uyF4GCkllKe-LO7GHdXsIKQytyOEdzFapjnkUfLMciD67fBJ2jXCtQggVc9KsYUvLlhVhSoa$=
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    LAT...LON 39298662 39748545 39918464 39848405 39608347 39328292
    39058237 38528203 38168236 38248405 38238478 38218574
    38388648 38528728 38718756 39128771 39298662=20

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