• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1000

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 18 23:35:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 182335
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182334=20
    COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-190100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1000
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0634 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

    Areas affected...Southeastern Wyoming...Northeast Colorado...and the
    western Nebraska Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 182334Z - 190100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development across far eastern Wyoming and
    northeastern Colorado appears likely over the next 1 to 2 hours. A
    few severe storms, including a supercell or two, may evolve and pose
    a risk for damaging wind gusts and or severe hail into this evening.
    Severe trends will be monitored but currently, a weather watch is
    unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Ahead of a weak mid-level shortwave trough, late
    afternoon visible imagery showed towering cumulus gradually becoming
    more agitated in the weak upslope flow regime across southern
    Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. Strong heating, with surface
    temps in the mid to upper 80s along with dewpoints in the upper 40s
    to low 50s are contributing to moderate buoyancy of 500-1500 J/kg of
    MLCAPE. Remaining MLCINH appears negligible and should continue to
    be eroded by weak background ascent from the approaching trough and
    upslope flow across the front range. Convective initiation appears
    likely in the next 1 to 2 hours. Deep-layer shear profiles around 35
    to 45 kts will support a few organized updrafts with some potential
    for a supercell or two. The degree of buoyancy and steep
    low/mid-level lapse rates will support a hail and wind threat with
    any strong storms as they move to the east/southeast into the
    western Nebraska Panhandle tonight. Storm coverage is forecast to
    remain isolated given weak overall forcing. The uncertainty in storm
    coverage and resulting severe potential suggests a weather watch is
    likely unnecessary, though convective trends will be monitored.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oISiuee1eu2CUdghANhWJOq4tAD30YAwL9Y5YfXtNa0LJkilT1GvOqYeYZGf45JgQQU5oBoS$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41250522 41890520 42340476 42490424 42350378 41980351
    41380351 40660356 40210361 39920391 39730443 39670485
    39920514 40880527 41250522=20



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