• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0905

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 10 04:51:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100451
    SPC MCD 100451=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0905
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1151 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

    Areas affected...North-central MT

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250...

    Valid 100451Z - 100615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250

    SUMMARY...Ongoing storms may pose a threat of hail and wind until
    around 06Z, before a decrease in coverage and intensity occurs

    DISCUSSION...At 0445Z, a supercell is ongoing across southern
    Phillips County MT, with other strong storms to the northwest over
    Blaine County. As with the previous supercell, the Phillips County
    storm may tend to weaken as it moves northeastward into a strongly
    capped environment, but some threat may spread out of WW 250 into
    Valley County in the short term. Until any weakening occurs,
    moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to
    support a threat of large hail. Other storms may briefly attain
    severe intensity across Blaine County and northern Phillips County
    until around 06Z, but intensity and coverage are expected to
    decrease overnight, due to increasing CINH and the effects of
    convective overturning across the region. At this time, it does not
    appear as if new watch issuance will be needed after WW 250 expires
    at 06Z.

    ..Dean.. 06/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uGNpA0Ltld3riRWlDIYDCE-8ibliTVf1uBIzj2LAZ4nq-BrRjqtlCPzOQLi1LvJsfkBzsERx$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 46890981 48480956 49010926 49160836 49080780 48720734
    48140718 47470738 47080819 46940905 46890981=20

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