• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0904

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 10 02:34:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100234
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100234=20
    MTZ000-100400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0904
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0934 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

    Areas affected...North-central MT

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250...

    Valid 100234Z - 100400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail and damaging wind may
    continue into the late evening. Some threat may spread downstream of
    WW 250 in the short term.

    DISCUSSION...At 0230Z, a long-lived supercell is ongoing across
    Phillips County MT, where it earlier produced 3-inch diameter hail.
    Trends in visible satellite and objective mesoanalysis suggest that
    MLCINH is increasing downstream, so the longevity of this cell is
    uncertain. However, given the well-organized nature of the storm and still-favorable MUCAPE and effective shear, some threat may spread
    downstream of WW 250 into Valley County, MT in the short term.=20

    Further west, convection has occasionally pulsed up to near severe
    limits, though individual cells have struggled to remain organized.
    While MLCINH may be too prohibitive for surface-based storms in that
    area, persistent large-scale ascent and favorable instability may
    allow for occasionally organized clusters or perhaps an elevated
    supercell, with a continued threat for hail and perhaps an isolated
    strong wind gust.

    ..Dean.. 06/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t85wCjyNNMxB8whbUfZQ3tWt062WiZGJpAoD-zYnO0dB1BLRQkxiz7E95lHj_mhUDct9GZZX$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 48971054 49030909 48940823 48660707 47580723 46920832
    46781048 47091090 48751065 48971054=20



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