• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0903

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 9 23:05:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092305
    SPC MCD 092305=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0903
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0605 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

    Areas affected...North-central MT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 092305Z - 100030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated but intense thunderstorm development is possible
    by 00Z. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or
    two will be possible this evening.

    DISCUSSION...At 23Z, cumulus is increasing across portions of
    central MT, with attempts at initiation apparently underway across
    portions of Cascade and Judith Basin counties. At least isolated
    thunderstorm development is expected by early evening, as a
    shortwave midlevel trough currently over southern ID moves into the
    region and convective inhibition continues to erode.=20

    Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture are
    supporting at least weak buoyancy across the region, with somewhat
    larger buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) noted where stronger
    heating has occurred across central MT. As midlevel southwesterly
    flow continues to strengthen, effective shear will increase to 40-50
    kt, supporting the potential for isolated supercells.=20

    Very large hail (potentially exceeding 2 inches in diameter) will be
    the primary initial threat. A tornado will also be possible with any
    sustained supercell near and just north of a surface boundary across
    central MT, where low-level moisture and shear will be locally
    maximized. The threat for isolated severe wind gusts will also be
    present with any supercell, and also with any outflow-dominant
    cluster that may develop later this evening.=20

    While the coverage of storms this evening remains uncertain, watch
    issuance may be required given the potential for potentially
    significant hail and wind with isolated supercells.

    ..Dean/Dial.. 06/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r3F8gudcrbnn_xoTwByQHa4_gnRxeWg9B3ycCNbDpVLG76liV8xUfBVk6mui73nMpBlIYK4a$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 48910832 47100798 46541030 46921164 47871223 48921082
    48910992 48910832=20

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