• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0902

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 9 22:44:47 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092244
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092244=20
    TXZ000-100015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0902
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0544 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of West Texas and the Big Bend

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 092244Z - 100015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible
    through the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along and near the dryline with
    the strongest storms in the vicinity of Fort Stockton. Shear is
    quite weak (~20 to 25 kts) which has mostly limited storm
    organization, but these storms are slowly drifting toward a more
    unstable airmass east of the dryline with 4000 to 5000 J/kg MLCAPE
    per SPC mesoanalysis. A few instances of large hail and severe wind
    gusts may be possible with the stronger updrafts. However, these
    storms likely won't persist long after sunset given the lack of
    forcing, and an airmass downstream which already shows some CINH
    which should only increase as the boundary layer cools.

    ..Bentley/Dial.. 06/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!szbsuvjhgvMsCd2aEhlNVfQN4hwSQn-tbNeTCt-7jccKBPdA9iuwi6N2QWzDmIeAzNriVMj9$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29490429 30410393 31420300 31850262 31780196 30980202
    29760221 29720246 29620267 29310278 29140286 28930311
    28970341 29170381 29490429=20



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