• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0901

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 9 22:43:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092243
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092243=20
    MTZ000-IDZ000-100015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0901
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0543 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

    Areas affected...southwest Montana and northeast Idaho

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 092243Z - 100015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop over the next couple
    of hours as storms begin to intensify ahead of a shortwave trough.
    Cool temperatures aloft and strong mid-level flow will support a
    hail and damaging wind threat with the stronger storms. A watch will
    likely not be needed but convective trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Late afternoon satellite imagery showed a western US
    trough nudging eastward across portions of the northern and central
    Rockies. Recent visible data has shown a general increase in
    clusters of towering cumulus within the higher terrain of
    northeastern Idaho and southwestern Montana. Destabilization remains
    somewhat weak, but south of a differential heating axis, surface obs
    indicate dewpoints in the 40s to 50s F are contributing to MUCAPE
    around 500 J/kg. As ascent from the approaching trough overspreads
    the warming and moistening arimass, additional storm development
    appears probable. Strong deep-layer shear 55-65 kts will favor a
    discrete storm mode with the potential for hail and damaging wind
    gusts. Storms have struggled to become established so far suggesting
    coverage may be lower than initially forecast.

    ..Lyons/Dial.. 06/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r6QQ0TGxZKskf7GjpWrVy3oh9p_5wXRHo8Go27Mp5X8Pv4hooYLtyiZfA3N3foshoBbuCe0p$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

    LAT...LON 45961501 48201412 48471300 48221222 47411213 46711238
    45321309 44561407 44301460 44451516 44971540 45271528
    45961501=20



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