• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0899

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 9 20:23:17 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092023
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092022=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-092115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0899
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0322 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

    Areas affected...eastern OK...western into central AR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 092022Z - 092115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms are possible this afternoon. Updrafts that
    root in the boundary layer and become sustained/surface-based, will
    likely pose at least an isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts.=20
    The overall coverage of potential severe weather will likely
    preclude the need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a few thunderstorms
    initiating over north-central and central AR with another attempt at
    CI over eastern OK. This region was subjectively analyzed with 12z
    raob data and model data as having higher 700 mb moisture content
    compared to central OK and southwest MO. Surface temperatures as of
    20z are in the upper 80s with mid-upper 70s deg F dewpoints. The
    airmass is characterized as extremely unstable with 4000 J/kg MLCAPE
    over central AR to around 5000 J/kg over eastern OK. Large-scale
    forcing for ascent is considered weak, but a weak upper-level trough
    noted on water-vapor imagery and RAP-analyzed 250-mb PV, appears to
    be associated with the initial attempts at CI over eastern OK, and
    this forcing influence perhaps extends as far east as north-central
    AR.=20=20

    Both the Tulsa, OK and Fort Smith, AR WSR-88D VAD show
    east-southeasterly surface flow veering to northwesterly at 20 kt
    around 3 km ARL. The latest RAP model forecast soundings show 25-30
    kt effective shear across eastern OK into central AR.=20=20

    It remains unclear whether sustained storms will evolve across
    north-central AR westward into eastern OK. However, given the
    magnitude of CAPE/shear, any sustained storm would pose at least
    some risk for large hail/severe gusts.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 06/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tee9OhOrtnSscELrullUuRj_xi5W0-pcBUJYymEaHPKNph0-GZofTGECCSfQFzbiZUw84Mmf$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

    LAT...LON 34299231 35109520 35579563 36049521 35909257 35639220
    34649191 34299231=20



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