• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0898

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 9 19:19:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091919
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091919=20
    MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-092115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0898
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0219 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

    Areas affected...Southeastern New York and portions of southern New
    England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 091919Z - 092115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms along a weak surface boundary will
    bring potential for damaging downdraft winds this afternoon. Storm
    coverage and degree of cold-pool organization is quite unclear. No
    WW is expected.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures in southern New England have rise into the
    upper 80s F in most locations and may breach 90 F in some locations
    later this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy has developed despite only
    modest mid-level lapse rates due to a very moist boundary layer
    (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints). Visible satellite imagery
    indicates towering cumulus and isolated thunderstorms developing
    from southeastern New York into Massachusetts along/near a slowly
    southward moving surface boundary. Additional isolated thunderstorm
    development is probable this afternoon as the front nears the
    southern New England coast. Storm coverage is likely the biggest
    question given the overall weak frontal forcing. Development on
    local terrain features or interactions with the sea breeze are the
    most probable locations. Subtle enhancement to the northwesterly
    flow on the southern flank of an upper cyclone may increase
    effective shear to perhaps 20 kts. Isolated damaging winds are
    possible with storms this afternoon, particularly where any
    clustering of activity can occur. No WW is expected given coverage uncertainties and storms exiting the coast relatively quickly.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 06/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pbCy6yHaH-d5qc8dCYrNnpIk9ENIrcRMCDNy8wEusxeMaejAxRsIpeFGpM9mYEIr-VGTchNW$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 41487493 42097484 42597416 42597293 42567156 42527056
    42336982 41886973 41327052 40797235 40607320 40537372
    40657421 41117475 41487493=20



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