• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0897

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 9 18:09:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091809
    SPC MCD 091808=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0897
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0108 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 091808Z - 092015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible
    this afternoon before storms move north of the international border
    in northern Minnesota. Storms may develop into central Minnesota,
    but uncertainty in coverage and intensity are greater. A WW is not
    expected this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed near the international
    border and in northwest Minnesota in association with a weak frontal
    wave cyclone/MCV. Effective shear magnitudes may approach 50 kts in
    close proximity to the MCV with a decrease with southward extent.
    The strongest storms are expected to occur in northern Minnesota
    where the most favorable overlap of buoyancy and shear will exist.
    The 12Z INL sounding sampled 7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rate which
    will promote a threat for large hail. Damaging wind gusts will also
    be possible given strong surface heating. A few storms may also
    develop farther south along a weak convergence zone into parts of
    central Minnesota. There is uncertainty here as the better mid-level
    ascent and shear will remain north and continue to lift away from
    the region this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the more likely
    threat with southward extent, with any large hail being much more
    isolated. A WW is not expected as the strongest storms are expected
    to move into Manitoba/Ontario relatively quickly.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 06/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uWyue10JHvlG-q8zVB9QvljtFEPnUdcFXj2IHJVcALLptTyHBljQFnEHXzatNvRBgecQ7Vxu$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 46399606 48409740 49099749 49249443 48639345 47069379
    46219428 45959524 45939570 46399606=20

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