• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0896

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 9 17:44:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091744
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091744=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-091945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0896
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

    Areas affected...Southeastern Virginia into eastern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 091744Z - 091945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds will be possible with water-loaded
    downdrafts this afternoon. Some potential exists for greater
    organization as cold pools merge. No WW is anticipated, but trends
    in storm organization will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along the Blue Ridge in
    central Virginia. These storms are expected to slowly drift
    southeastward into a hot and very moist airmass. Dewpoints in the
    low 70s F and temperatures that may near 90 F will support moderate
    buoyancy of 2000 to perhaps greater than 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. This
    morning's observed soundings at WAL and MHX sampled 6-7 C/km lapse
    rates. Storm intensification will not be overly quick given the
    modest lapse rates and rather weak flow aloft. However, locally
    intense water-loaded downdrafts are possible with an attendant
    threat for damaging winds. Storm coverage may also be sufficient for
    a small cluster or two to develop later this afternoon. Should this
    occur, the threat for damaging winds would be locally greater ahead
    of the clusters. A WW is not anticipated this afternoon, but trends
    will be monitored for greater cold-pool-related organization.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 06/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qKf73Qa84N3nGJFFbH4vF3wX0NiQlDOazEJ2Br5Us4-jOD01It_xxQNnW1NboC35uGkkBpbj$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36617926 37567902 38117860 38257792 37227639 36337572
    35577593 34997699 35027783 35637847 36617926=20



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