• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0895

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 9 17:06:47 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091706
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091706=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-091930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0895
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1206 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

    Areas affected...central into northern MS...far southeast AR...far
    northeast LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 091706Z - 091930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated wet microbursts will probably result in localized
    gusts 45-60 mph and pockets of wind damage this afternoon. The
    disorganized character of the thunderstorm threat will likely
    preclude a severe thunderstorm watch from being issued.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar mosaic shows developing
    thunderstorms over north-central MS and a separate thunderstorm
    cluster intersecting trailing outflow over northwest MS. Cloud
    breaks over north-central MS and mostly clear skies over central MS
    will favor strong heating for the next few hours as temperatures
    warm into the mid-upper 80s deg F. A very moist airmass,
    characterized by low-mid 70s dewpoints and PW around 2 inches, will
    further destabilize and yield around 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by early
    afternoon. Weak flow through the troposphere will result in
    slow-moving cells and clusters. The main threat with the stronger
    water-loaded cores (higher echo tops and marginally severe MESH
    cores) will be localized gusts in the 45-60 mph range. Pockets of
    tree damage are anticipated to be the primary end-result with the
    most intense storms.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 06/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!px-7ULyZ0ApIB48hywcggkpj5DQdNYjUVD4ztmfovPyA8nWMGU1FYZTrtOC9VYjtSGT_d5Bg$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 33609252 33899125 34178995 33768845 32828855 32209030
    32649199 33609252=20



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